A new poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows former President Donald Trump with a significant lead over his closest competitor in the crowded field of GOP presidential nominee combatants.
But Trump’s pollster says the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll appears to undercut wider support of the former president in the Hawkeye State by significant sampling of independents and former Democratic Party caucusgoers.
The former president, with support of 42 percent support, leads Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (19 percent) by 23 percentage points, according to the poll.
U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) is running a distant third, with 9 percent support, followed by former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence tied at 6 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie checks in with 5 percent support, and Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy received the backing of 4 percent of respondents, according to the poll.
The survey of 406 likely GOP Republican caucus attendees was conducted Aug. 13-17, and has a nearly 5 percent margin of error. “Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or political affiliation — have a larger margin of error,” the Des Moines Register reported.
John McLaughlin of New York-based McLaughlin & Associates, says the Register/NBC/Mediacom poll leaves much to be desired.
He notes the demographic sample used included voters who would tend to erode Trump’s overall support, including 19 percent who have attended Democratic caucuses in the past. In Iowa, the party-run caucuses are open only to registered party members. If you want to vote for Republicans you have to register as a Republican by the night of caucus. Same for Democrats.
The Register poll also relies heavily on independent voters. The article notes that 25 percent of respondents were independents, with 21 percent voting for Trump to 19 percent for DeSantis. It appears the poll did not draw from a list of past Republican caucusgoers as pollsters opened the sample up to non-Republicans.
No other demographic information — age, education , gender, location of respondent, was noted in the poll.
As the story points out, Trump leads DeSantis among “self-identified Republicans, the core of caucusgoers, 51 percent to 20 percent.”
The Register piece notes Trump’s numbers in the poll, like just about every poll out there, have only risen since a flood of unprecedented criminal indictments against the former president in the past few months.
“Since his presidency ended and as he has mounted a third campaign for the White House, Trump has been criminally indicted four times, has attacked Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular Republican governor, and has held relatively few campaign events in the first-in-the-nation caucus state,” the Register reports.
“And yet, Trump has never been viewed favorably by more of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers than he is now, the Iowa Poll shows.” Trump is viewed favorably by 65 percent of the respondents, compared to 33 percent who view him unfavorably, according to the survey.
As the piece notes, Trump’s best showing is among self-identified Republicans, with a 77 percent favorability rating. He does well with those making less than $70,0000 a year, and among evangelicals, all categories Trump has polled well in.
Yet, the Iowa Poll includes a wider sample of independents, Democratic Party caucusgoers who aren’t as supportive of Trump.
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer and Co., the West Des Moines-based firm that conduced the poll, told the Register that the survey finds many indicators of Trump’s strength. But Selzer said the race is not settled and may be “closer than it may first seem.”
McLaughlin, Trump’s pollster, said it’s just the opposite.
“It’s more settled than the poll would indicate,” he said. “When you look at self-identified Republicans, he wins 51 percent to 20 percent, and the Republican Party presidential caucus takes place among Republicans.”
“Donald Trump is more dominant than it appears in the poll.”
McLaughlin said pollsters should be screening for registered Republicans and whether they’re likely to attend the caucuses. Not all Republicans and Democrats attend the Iowa caucuses. Less than 20 percent of active Iowa registered voters have.
The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll isn’t the only political sentiment tracker that includes a significant number of non-Republican voters in its sample. Many polls to date tracking the presidential field in first-in-the-nation caucus state bring in independents and voters who have previously caucused as Democrats.
But such sampling, McLaughlin says, can skew the numbers.
A Trafalgar Group Poll of Iowa caucusgoers conducted about the same time as the Register/NBC poll — Aug. 14 to 16 — found Trump polling at 42 percent, DeSantis at 16 percent, and Scott more closely behind the Florida governor at 13 percent.
That poll included a larger sample, 1,126 likely GOP presidential primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. The poll included age, ethnicity, and gender demographic information.
Nationally, Trump is dominating his opponents, as well. The former president is up by more than 40 points over his closest competitor, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average of GOP presidential primary polls. Trump has 55.8 percent support, followed by DeSantis (14.9 percent), Ramaswamy (7 percent), and Pence (4.4 percent).
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M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “President Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore CC2.0.
